Tuesday Morning Coffee Saturday January 10th , 2009 8:00 EST start Arizona at Carolina I have certainly been one the best football run of my career and that certainly is the case with my bowl selections entering Thursday night’s BCS Championship game. I have record a 13-1 ATS mark with 7*, 10*, and 15* releases this bowl season. Broken down the records are 1-0 ATS with 15*, 3-0 with 10*, and 9-1 ATS with 7* releases. I nailed a 10* UNDER Texas Monday and have already released my top rated 15* Titan play on Thursday’s Championship game. Thank you for the season long support of my program and the trust you instill in my work means the most to me. Entering my 16th year of sports handicapping I encourage you to join me on a daily basis with all of the sports and in so doing you will have a tremendous opportunity to make a pile of dough. Ai Simulator shows a 74% probability that 50 or more points will be scored in this game. AiS also reveals an 85% probability that Arizona will gain between 350 and 400 yards, allow 6 or more yards per play, and allow 8 or more passing yards per attempt. Note that Arizona is 6-1 OVER this season and 13-4 OVER the past 3 seasons when they allow 6 or more total yards per play. They are 4-0 OVER this season, 10-0 OVER the past 3 seasons and 30-13 OVER since 1992 when they gain between 350 and 400 total yards. They are also 5-1 OVER this season and 10-3 OVER when they allow 8 or more passing yards per attempt. Arizona is also in a series of strong over roles for this game. Note that they are 7-0 OVER (+7.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season; 9-1 OVER (+7.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons; 8-1 OVER (+6.9 Units) versus good rushing teams - averaging >=130 rushing yards/game in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons; 6-0 OVER (+6.0 Units) versus good offensive teams scoring 24 or more points/game this season. Arizona is also in a solid power type of trend noting they are 15-3 OVER (+11.7 Units) after scoring 25 points or more in 2 straight games since 1992. Cardinals certain have their hands full having not only to play a rested Carolina team, but also having to travel to the Eastern time zone where they are just 2-19 and an imperfect 0-5 this season. Carolina’s OL and DL needed the BYE week and for the first time since week 10 – after their BYE – the Panthers will be playing close to 100% full strength. The Cardinals have offensive weapons that will make it difficult for Carolina to consistently contain throughout this game. Yet, the key to this over play is that Carolina knows they can score at will against this Arizona defense if they simply execute. Carolina’s defensive scheme never places one defender to shit down an offensive weapon. They have NO other choice, but to assign CB Gamble to cover Fitzgerald, especially if Boldin is still not completely healthy. Warner knows how to read this at the LOS and even if Carolina shows zone matchup or Tampa-2, or even base cover-2, he can expect that to transition into man on Fitzgerald. Look for Warner to hook up with Fitzgerald on double move routes when he is on the strong side and has plenty of field to operate within. I also like a 3* amount on the first half line OVER as well. I would not surprised to see this game 24-17 Carolina at the half.
 

John Ryan
	Ryan’s CFB 15* Mid-American Game of the Week Here is a Thursday night play that you just can’t pass up. This 15* Game of the Week is the winner between Mid-Conference rivals Temple and Central Michigan. The research features a proven system hitting 84% ATS winners 18 seasons. Plus, game situations sporting an 18-2 ATS mark for 90% ATS winners.

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