The Bears have done it all season with opportunistic defense and special teams, as well as a big play, albeit consistent offense. They are well-coached on both sides of the ball, and dynamite on special teams. As much as people like myself who (for some strange and often fruitless reason) like to dig deep into box scores in the hope of finding something more indicative of a team’s true ability besides final score, see many signs of the Bears being more opportunistic than good, there is nothing wrong with being opportunistic. They have done it all season! They scored the same number of points as Indianapolis during the regular season, despite averaging 52 less ypg. When a team gets “lucky” over and over again, you have to at least consider the possibility that they can continue to get “lucky”, as a good deal of it is not luck at all. The fact is their defense forces mistakes, and with Gould and Hester they are excellent in the kicking and return game. This compensates for an offense that only averages 5.0ypplay against a rather mediocre slate of opposing defenses that allowed 5.4 ypplay on average. Although Indy’s defense is now healthy and playing very well in the playoffs, the Bears do have the better defense in this game, and the team with the better defense (less ypg) has won 13 of the last 16 Super Bowls, and are 28-12 SU/27-12-1$ in all Super Bowls. They have an excellent set of LB’s and CB’s that can run with the Colts big 3 of Wayne, Harrison, and Clark. As much as I talked about the Bears being more opportunistic than good, realize that they had to be to overcome inconsistent play from Rex Grossman who has thrown 21 INT’s. Other Chicago pluses include a weak Colts kick coverage unit against Hester, and the fact that despite the big win over the Patriots, Manning and Dungy have an alarming history of coming out flat in big games. The Colts were clearly the better team against NE, but played the worst first half they possibly could have in their biggest game of the season last week. If they come out flat here, they won’t have their home field and the Patriots weak back 7 (outside of Samuel) to help them mount the comeback. You don’t want to play uphill against the Bears defense.

With all that being said, I’m going to lean to the Colts, and would only play them in this game, especially with 6.5’s available. They have a week off for Manning to prepare for this defense, and most likely needed it off of two physical wars against Baltimore and New England. If they didn’t have that extra week, I definitely would not be recommending. The AFC was light years ahead of the NFC this season, and Indy also had to play the NFC’s best division, the East in out of conference play. Their playoff run is far more impressive than Chicago, as KC, at Baltimore, and New England are far more impressive than wins over 8-8 Seattle, and a dome team in the elements. The Bears (the whole NFL for that matter, but especially the Bears)depend on turnovers and sacks, but Manning has been sacked only 20 times in 19 games and Indy was tied for third fewest turnovers in the league during the regular season. They have a huge edge offensively in this game, while Dungy’s Cover 2, with everyone now healthy, is built to limit the big plays that Chicago thrives on. With the defense’s return to health and Chicago’s losses of Mike Brown and Tommie Harris, the Bears’ edge on that side of the ball is not quite as big. If the Colts can avoid sleepwalking the first half like they did against New England, they’ll win this game.

I agree with the downward movement on the total, and at 48 or higher there is some value with the UNDER. Super Bowls are often decided by big plays, and there are certainly a lot of guys that can create them in this game, but we have aTtop 5 defense and another defense that I truly believe is Top 15 caliber right now. Both final scores from last week were misleadingly high, and this week’s line shows an adjustment has been made. The Colts went off at 47 vs, New England last week, and the Pats have a better QB and offense and weaker defense than the Bears, while Chicago went off at 42.5 (perhaps 1-1.5 points than it should have due to weather) against a New Orleans team with every bit the offense but a worse defense than Indy. Anything above key number 47 seems a bit high here, but it is worth noting that 16 of the last 25 Super Bowls have had at least 47 points scored.

LEANS to INDY AND UNDER Indianapolis 27- 17