EDGE Article
Dallas at Tampa Bay
September 13, 2009
1:00 EST Kick-off
This is actually a very important game for both teams to begin the season and to get off a solid victory. AiS shows a 70% probability that 39 or more points will be scored in this game. Public has bet this total down from an opening of 42 and I always like being on the house side of the money. AiS also projects a 65% probability that both teams will score 20 or more points. Dallas is also 6-1 OVER last 3 seasons in games that are statistically close with them out gaining their opponents by 0.5 yards per play or less. TB is also 6-1 OVER when they are out gained by 0.5 yards per play over the past 3 seasons. I also like a 3* amount playing OVER the 1st half total. Utilizing the projections from the AiS Dallas is 64-16 OVER (+46.4 Units) the 1rst half total when both teams score 20 or more points since 1992; 40-15 OVER (+23.5 Units) the 1rst half total when both teams score 20 or more points since 1992. The Dallas game plan will be ball control and will be established either by the run or the pass first. TO is now in Buffalo and Dallas does not have a true deep threat. Perhaps a good thing though as Romo’s best asset is his timing and accuracy and all of the receivers are ball control, sure handed types. Whitten is the best TE in football and he will be an integral part of the pass attack. I also believe Dallas will use him in post/fly patterns on the seams when TB shows 7 or more in the box. Marion Barber is a punishing runner and that style is augmented by an excellent OL and also the “slash” type RB in Felix Jones. Like a 3 headed monster, Dallas will be able to move the ball and score almost at will based on my research. TB has Leftwich under center and many think Dallas will blitz and blitz more at the immobile QB. Yet, they truly can’t get away with that given that TB has deep threats in TE Kellen Windslow and WR Antonio Bryant. Look for Dallas to play a mostly zone scheme and not give up the big play. This scheme allows TB to also move the ball and score points. Take the OVER.
| John Ryan | |
| Ryan’s CFB 15* Mid-American Game of the Week Here is a Thursday night play that you just can’t pass up. This 15* Game of the Week is the winner between Mid-Conference rivals Temple and Central Michigan. The research features a proven system hitting 84% ATS winners 18 seasons. Plus, game situations sporting an 18-2 ATS mark for 90% ATS winners. | |
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