1. Louisville- Prone to stretches of stagnant offense where they fall in love with the three pointer, but this team combines coaching with NBA talent and athleticism. They are right there with Memphis as the best defensive team in the country and are peaking at the right time. Held the Big East's top 3 scoring teams to 55, 55, and 66 points in the conference tourney. Have the ability to win a half-court or fast-paced game.

2. Pitt- I gave the Redbirds the nod because of their defense, but this is really more like a 1A and 1B for me. If the Panthers' protect Dejuan Blair (in 3 of 4 losses he had 4 or 5 fouls and played 23 minutes or less), they can beat anyone. Forget about past tourney woes, this team has two NBA lottery picks (Blair and Sam Young) and as smart a point guard as there is in the country in Levance Fields. #2 in the nation in offensive efficiency, just a hair behind North Carolina. Fairly easy draw as well.

3. North Carolina- Still worry about them defensively, but they are the nation's most efficient team on the offensive end. They fall off this list though if Ty Lawson is limited with his toe injury.

4. Memphis- Loaded with talent, but will Frosh. and natural shooting guard Tyreke Evans be able to handle the what defenses throw at him in this tourney? Blowout of Gonzaga on the road was impressive, and big men Taggart and Dozier are vastly underrated. Much better at the FT line than last year's team as well.

5. UConn- AJ Price may be the nation's most underrated player, and the Huskies held a rugged schedule to 38% FG despite remarkably allowing only 12.5 FT attempts per game. The backcourt is deep enough to overcome the loss of Jerome Dyson from a talent perspective, but they have yet to prove that they can replace his heart.

6. Gonzaga- The Zags' played a rugged OOC schedule with mixed results, and I was critical of their chemistry and toughness throughout the season. Massacre of a good St. Mary's team in WCC tourney final shows that they may now be playing to their talent, which is, by the way, top 6-7 in the nation as they have 3-4 future NBA players on this roster. If that third St. Mary's victory is indeed the real Zags, watch out.

#5-7 Sleeper: Purdue- Robbie Hummell is healthy and playing his best ball and Matt Painter is one of the best young coaches in the game. In a tough region with Memphis and UConn at the top, but as smart a team as there is in the country.

#8-10 Sleeper: Michigan- Take a look at what John Beilein's teams did in the postseason at West Virginia, and realize why no one wants to play the Wolverines right now. Have a very managable draw with teams that their slow, perimeter-based style can frustrate.

#11-13 Sleeper: Cleveland St.- PG Williams and PF Bullock will get NBA looks, and this team. Defensive numbers are solid across the board, and they are very rangy and athletic when they go zone, something that may slow down up-tempo Wake Forest in round 1.

The Midwest and East regions are much easier choices for me than the West and South. Purdue and UConn would not shock if they made it to Detroit and Missouri is no slouch either in the West. In the south, Syracuse has improved immensely on defense in the last month, and definitely could sneak in, especially if Lawson's injury lingers. If Lawson is 90% or better by the time the Sweet 16 rolls around, the winner of Carolina and Gonzaga will head to the Motor City.

Final Four: Louisville over Memphis, Pitt over Gonzaga

National Champion (in a coin flip): Louisville over Pitt

 

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