By Matt Josephs for Steve Merril Sports

The Florida Gators are two years removed from a national championship and they are now firmly on the bubble with a strong chance of missing the Big Dance for the second straight season. Florida plays a must-win game on Thursday night in the SEC tournament versus Arkansas, so now is an excellent time to take a closer look and to decide if the Florida Gators are for real. The first word that comes to mind about the Gators is inconsistency. They have only two double-digit scorers on the squad in Pat Calathes (17.7 ppg) and Alex Tyus (12.4 ppg). Calathes is also 10th in the country in assists with 6.4 per game and he also averages two steals per game as well. He hasn’t gotten the help needed on a consistent basis as four of the other top six scorers all average just around nine points per game. Statistically the team checks in at 25th nationally on offense, averaging 78.2 points per game (versus opponents that allow just 69.6 ppg) and the Gators shoot an excellent 48.1% from the field (versus opponents that allow just 42.7%). The problem and inconsistency for the Gators has been on the defensive side of the court as Florida ranks only 184th in the nation in scoring defense, allowing 68.2 points per game. They also have a below average field goal defense that permits 44.8% FG (versus opponents that average just 44.0%). The bad numbers continue with the three-point defense which is 273rd in the country as Florida permits 36.2% from beyond the arc this season (versus opponents that average just 33.8%). The Gators 9-14-1 ATS record this season indicates that they have been an overrated team and Florida was especially weak during the first two months of the season with a 2-7 ATS mark in lined games. Florida did go on a 4-0-1 ATS run in late January, but they then finished the regular season on a 3-7 ATS slide. Florida just doesn’t have the quality wins that a true major conference team should have and they stand just 2-6 straight-up this season versus Top 50 opponents. They beat Washington in November and then finished with a home win versus Kentucky last Saturday, but in between the Gators were 0-6 SU versus Syracuse, Florida State, Tennessee, Kentucky, LSU, and Tennessee again. This poor showing versus quality teams, along with a suspect defense, is why Florida is not for real and likely heading to the NIT for the second straight season.

Matt Josephs is a producer for ESPN Radio in Richmond Virginia. He loves the home underdog and the Temple Owls.
 

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