1. Traditionally close rivalries- Lean towards taking big points in rivalry games that have a history of being nailbiters. A lot can happen during the course of the season, but a team that has had more downs than ups (re: the dog) usually brings their A game against the rival.

2. Special Teams- For some reason, special teams play always seems to come up huge in these rivalries. Teams with a good special teams coach often scout their late season opponents kicking units looking to find any weakness. They have waited all year to exploit this weakness and now get to incorporate what they have learned.

3. Rivalry Experience- In year-end rivalry analysis there is nothing that matches “having been there before”. Upperclassmen have a better understanding of what is at stake in these games. They deal with the hype and preparation better and the maturity helps them understand the pressure.

4. Minor or Non Bowler vs. Major Bowler- When a team’s postseason fate is already decided, this year end rivalry game often means much more to them than the bowl. The Major Bowler, usually the favorite, is attempting to improve its bowl position, and if there is such a thing, may not be taking its rival serious. At the same time, you don’t want to overlook…

5. Series Dominance- Some teams just own others. They either take great joy in pounding their athletically inferior rival or are simply coached by a staff that annually outschemes the opposing staff. When this series dominance is not accurately reflected in the line (ie the usual favorite is now the dog) there can be serious line value. Remember, the ball can bounce a lot of different ways during the course of the season, but two things are usually consistent if you have a longtime coach: The quality of athletes, and the emphasis placed on this rivalry

6. Coaching Situation- Much like I prefer upperclassmen in a rivalry, I also shy away from new head coaches or staffs, especially when laying points to a coach that has enjoyed at least some success in this rivalry. Also put emphasis on a coach that may need to win to keep his job, especially if that coach is in good standing with his players

7. Exploiting Weaknesses- If a team has a glaring weakness, believe me its rival knows about it. You often see very good defenses give up big numbers in rivalry games, or teams go off for season high rushing amounts or sacks, etc… Even small weaknesses on good teams have a way of being magnified when facing a rival that is merely competent in that area.

8. Lean to Underdogs- Although not as much value as their used to be in this strategy, the best way to begin your handicapping is to shade underdogs slightly and go from there. That doesn’t mean you can’t bet a favorite, just shade the dogs slightly and don’t UNDERESTIMATE the role that emotion will play.