UNDERVALUED

St.Louis - Marc Bulger is playing the best ball of his career with a sparkling 12/1 TD/INT ratio. The Rams rank in the top 5 in the NFL in offensive ypplay, and although the defense gives up a ton of yards, Jim Haslett's smoke and mirrors defense has done a good of forcing turnovers and tightening up in the red zone. DE Leonard Little is one of the league's most underrated players. B2B losses may have proven this team wasn't ready for the big time yet, but will give us some ATS value the over the next month or so. Pay special attention to the Rams against weak running teams, as they have a hard time lining up with physical teams (4.8ypr) but Haslett's D can force mistakes against pass-heavy offenses. +10 turnover margin as fueled the Rams improvement.

Detroit -This team's improvement hasn't taken place yet, but I think it will in the second half of the season. They had a late bye week, and it is worth noting that they have lost only 1 game by double digits all season. Much like St.Louis, their offense can be potent at 5.7ypplay under Mike Martz, and should only get better as their O-line gets healthy. I expect second half defensive improvement as the coaching of DC Henderson and HC Marinelli starts to sink in. Look for overlays as the Lions are often grouped by the media as one of the league's worst teams, but my power rankings have them comfortably ahead of Oakland, Houston, Cleveland, etc…

OVERVALUED

Chicago - It's not that I don't think the Bears are good, and believe me I don't like fading that tenacious defense and dangerous special team unit any more than the next man. It's just that I think they are outrageously over-priced. I have them ranked slightly below the likes of Indy, San Diego, and New England, but still as one of the league's top 6 teams. They can destroy a bad offense, but really haven't faced a good one yet. They have one win of substance in two years and that win was avenged by Carolina in the playoffs last year. At Minny and Seattle without Alexander are decent, but I don't consider those quality wins. They are starting a 3 game road stretch this week that will tell a lot about the Bears and the maturity of Rex Grossman. Grossman still makes some UGLY, UGLY mistakes and he won't be able to do that at New England and NY Giants in the coming weeks.

New Orleans - Kudos to Sean Payton for his early success in the Bayou, but is the honeymoon over? The Saints defense is starting to spring leaks everywhere, and the front 7 may be the league's worst at stopping the run when all is said and done. (4.6ypr right now) Early on there were plenty of blocked kicks, game-winning punt returns, innovative play calls and emotional home games as the team returned to the Super Dome with a new staff. That stuff doesn't last forever, and best believe defensive coordinators everywhere are preparing for Sean Payton and the now-hobbled Reggie Bush. Saints remaining road schedule is brutal, and outcoaching opponents for an entire season is a lot to ask for from any first year NFL head coach, let alone one who is his own offensive coordinator. Line catching up to Brees and Payton, and I don't expect much help from the defense.

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