by Steve Merril

Phoenix Suns at San Antonio Spurs (-3½, 207) – 8:05 pm ET (TNT)

Opening line

Despite trailing 3-0 in this playoff series, the early money quickly came in on San Antonio when an opening line was posted on Saturday morning. Oddsmakers initially made the Spurs a 2½-point home favorite and bettors quickly pushed the line up to -3½. The early money also came in on the Over as the opening total went from 206½ up to 207.

When the series began, the Suns were installed as a small -135 favorite, but now that Phoenix has established a 3-0 series lead, the Suns are an overwhelming -2500 favorite. This means Phoenix has a 95% chance of winning this series and San Antonio has only a 5% chance of winning the next four games in a row. This is not surprising as NBA teams down 0-3 in a best-of-7 playoff series have never advanced in 88 past series.

Series Dominance

The Suns are known for their full throttle, uptempo style, while the Spurs’ strength has always been their half-court defensive play. This contrast of styles has favored San Antonio in the past, but Phoenix has begun to exert their dominance this season.

The Suns are a perfect 6-0 ATS in the six head-to-head meetings this season and 5-1 straight-up in those games with their only loss coming by 3 points as a 4-point road underdog on February 28th. Phoenix has won the other five meetings by an average of +10.8 points per game and they have held 20, 17, 14, 11, and 16 point leads in those five meetings.

The Suns’ success has stemmed from the fact they have been able to dictate the tempo and force a fast-paced game. The Over is 5-1 in the six meetings with the only Under coming by half a point on Friday night with 206 points when the total was 206½. The other five meetings have averaged 216.2 points per game with each of the five games totaling at least 212 points or more.

Raining 3’s

Phoenix has been deadly from beyond the arc in this series. The Suns have shot an incredible 47.7% (31-65) from three-point land in the three games so far. Their best performance came in Game 3 when they hit 57.7% (15-26) from three-point land. Goran Dragic was a perfect 5-5 from beyond the arc while Jason Richardson hit 5 of 7.

San Antonio has also knocked down their share of triples. After shooting a dismal 4-19 (21.1%) from three-point land in Game 1, the Spurs have hit a respectable 44.1% (15-34) from beyond the arc in Games 2 and 3. Both teams have hit a whopping 50 three’s combined over the first three games of this series.

Nash Is Cash

Steve Nash has played out of his mind so far in this series. Nash has scored 68 points on 56.5% (26-46) shooting from the field. Nash has a 22-14 assist to turnover ratio over the three games, but the fact that he had just 6 assists in Games 2 and 3 prove that he’s looking to score more against the Spurs.

Nash is not a consistent big-time scorer these days; he’s more of a true point guard who sets his teammates up with wide-open shots instead of taking the shots himself. But when he’s as aggressive as he’s been in this series, the Suns are one tough team to beat.

The Game is 4 Quarters

San Antonio’s defense has done a decent job against the Suns for most of the first 36 minutes of each game. However, the Spurs have fallen asleep in the money quarter in all three of the games so far.

Phoenix has scored 39, 32, and 26 points in the fourth quarter. That’s a total of 97 points scored on San Antonio’s defense when the game is on the line. Numbers like that were never allowed by the vintage defensive minded Spurs teams of old. San Antonio’s offense has scored just 77 points in the fourth quarter, and when your opponent holds a 20-point advantage in the final 12 minutes, it’s almost impossible to win.