Michigan State vs. North Carolina (-7½, 152½) – 9:15 pm ET (CBS)

Line Movement

The oddsmakers opened North Carolina as a 7-point favorite on Saturday night after the semi-final games were complete and the early money has since pushed the line to -7½. The Over/Under line opened at 153 total points and was quickly bet down to 152, before settling at 152½ when the majority of sportsbooks posted a line on Sunday. North Carolina is a -360 favorite on the money-line, while the take-back on Michigan State is +310. This indicates North Carolina has approximately a 77% chance of the winning the national championship.

As far as the betting action is concerned, the public is evenly split on the side as 52% currently back North Carolina -7½, with 48% supporting Michigan State according to Wagerline.com. The public is supporting the Over with more conviction as 61% currently predict a high-scoring game, while only 39% are leaning towards the Under. Despite the public sentiment towards the Over, the total line still dropped a full point from the opening line which indicates that the sharp money is on the Under.

Rematch

Despite facing only one common opponent (Maryland) all season, this is actually a rematch as Michigan State and North Carolina have already met this season at Ford Field back on December 3rd. Although it was the same location, it was not the same setup as the attendance number was only 25,267, compared to the record crowd of 72, 456 fans that attended the Final Four on Saturday.

North Carolina dominated the earlier meeting and easily won 98-63 as a 10-point favorite. The game stayed Under the total of 167 points. The Tar Heels outshot the Spartans 48% to 35% from the field and dominated down low with a 54% to 39% edge from two-point range. North Carolina took excellent care of the ball with a 20-9 assist/turnover ratio, while Michigan State had a negative 15/21 ratio.

The Spartans were without a key player in the paint as their starting center, Goran Suton, did not play. Suton is the team’s best big man and currently leads the squad in rebounding (8.3 rpg) and is second in blocks (14) and scoring (10.2 ppg). Suton has been particularly strong during the NCAA Tournament with 19 points and 10 rebounds versus Louisville and 20 points with 9 rebounds versus Kansas.

It was also a tough scheduling situation for Michigan State in the earlier meeting as the Spartans had just played a three-game tournament in Florida versus Maryland, Oklahoma State, and Wichita State. Michigan State was a tired team when they returned to Michigan to play their fourth game in seven days versus a rested Tar Heel squad.

Kalin Lucas and Durrell Summers met at Red Lobster in Lansing two days after that December drubbing and vowed to never let it happen again the Spartans went on a perfect 11-0 SU run afterwards.

Pointspread Success

Monday night’s national championship pits two of the best coaches in the nation from both a straight-up and pointspread perspective. Roy Williams led the Tar Heels to a 33-4 SU record this season, including a 13-3 SU mark versus teams currently in the Sagarin Top 50 and a 7-1 SU mark versus Top 25 foes. Meanwhile, Tom Izzo led the Spartans to a 31-6 SU record and an 18-5 SU mark versus Top 50 opponents, including 9-2 SU versus Top 25 teams.

Both coaches have a long line of pointspread success as Roy Williams is 114-82 ATS in all games as the Tar Heel’s head coach during the past six years, including 102-79 ATS as a favorite. Meanwhile, Tom Izzo is 200-166 ATS in all games as the Spartan’s head man the past fourteen seasons, including 20-8 ATS as a neutral court underdog.

Steve Merril
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