Controversial bid

When the 34 at-large teams were announced for the NCAA tournament, the most controversial bid went to Arizona which extended Wildcat’s NCAA-leading streak of tournament appearances to 25 in a row. Arizona was just 19-13 straight-up and many felt that a non-BCS team such as San Diego State, St. Mary’s-CA, or Creighton should have been dancing. Arizona received the bid due to their tough schedule of Pac-10 opponents which included wins versus UCLA, USC, and Washington, and also impressive non-conference wins versus Kansas, Gonzaga, and San Diego State.

Cinderella or not?

Arizona has quieted their critics by advancing to the Sweet Sixteen round, however the first two wins came against Utah (+1) and Cleveland State (-3), so the Wildcats have benefited from an extremely favorable schedule in the tournament. Arizona (#12 seed) and Purdue (#5 seed) are the only teams that were not a Top 4 seed to advance to the Round of 16 this year. Normally, a #12 seed off back-to-back wins would be considered a Cinderella story, however the fact Arizona has been to 25 straight tournaments and has won a national title makes this a hotly debated topic.

Technically speaking, Arizona is a Cinderella story as they were not considered a serious national title contender with odds as high as 250-to-1 last week. Just like when #8 seed Villanova won the national title in 1985, it does not matter if you are a big name team as those Wildcats were definitely a Cinderella squad.

The difference is that Villanova defeated a #1 ranked Georgetown in the finals. The fact that Arizona has only been a 1-point underdog and a 3-point favorite in their first two wins is what leaves many doubting the ‘Cats. Arizona will get their chance at true Cinderella stardom on Friday night when they face #1 ranked Louisville.

Offense first

The strength of this Arizona squad is a strong offense that averages 72.5 points per game and 47.7% FG (versus opponents that allow just 65.5 ppg and 43.1%). Arizona gets 75% of their points from two-point range, but they are still a strong three-point shooting club as they average 39.4% from beyond the arc (versus opponents that allow just 34.8%). The Wildcats also average a fantastic 73.9% from the free throw line.

Arizona’s weakness has been a lack of depth and a mediocre defense that has been particularly poor down low as the Wildcats allow 49.4% from two-point range which ranks only 228th in the nation and is above the national average of just 48.0%.

Bottom Line

Arizona deserved to make the NCAA tournament as they were one of the top 34 remaining at-large teams, however two wins versus a pair of mediocre opponents (Utah and Cleveland State) does not suddenly make Arizona a national title contender.

The Wildcats will now face a tough Louisville pressure defense which could wear down a thin Arizona lineup which gets 82% of their total minutes from starters and only 18% from their reserves (ranks 340th out of 344).

According to the oddsmakers, Louisville has an 82% change of winning Friday’s game straight-up which means Arizona’s run will likely end. Arizona is not for real from a championship perspective and for this reason they should be considered a Cinderella story if they continue to win. Perhaps the biggest Cinderella story is the success of Arizona interim head coach Russ Pennell who is not even a candidate for the head coaching job next season.

Steve Merril
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