2008: S/U: 8-8 ATS:11-4-1 O/U: 10-5-1

2008 Spread Fact: 7-1 ATS as a Favorite

2008 Spread Fact: 6-1 ATS at Home (Dome team)

2008 Total Fact: 5-1 Over with totals of 50 or higher

2009 Season Win Total: O/U 8.5

Fantasy Tip: QB Drew Brees has the weapons for an aggressive, pass-happy Sean Payton-type offense. WR’s Marques Colston, Lance Moore and Devery Henderson offer late-round value. QB Drew Brees will continue to put up big fantasy numbers.

Team Analysis

The Saints have not made the playoffs since the 2006 season, when they lost to the Bears in the NFC Championship game 14-39. Head Coach Sean Payton returns with a 4-year contract extension. Payton will call the plays on offense and I have no doubt that the Saints will score often. But the Saints defense will struggle again this season and give up plenty of points. One of Payton’s first off-season moves was to fire friend and Defensive Coordinator Gary Gibbs. Payton brings in Gregg Williams as the new Defensive Coordinator and is optimistic that Williams can transform the Saints defense. The flip side to this move is that the Jaguars just as eagerly fired Williams after struggling for a year as their defensive guy. Williams is considered to be a bright and creative defensive mind but is also very well-traveled and not greatly missed by his former employers. Even if he is the genius he claims to be, the Saints defense will still need help. The good news is that the Saints do happen to play in the NFC South, where in 2007 Atlanta and Carolina were two of the worst teams in the league, yet both teams made the playoffs in 2008. In 2007 the Saints posted a record of 11-4-1 ATS. The old handicappers’ adage is that if you can run the ball on offense and stop the run on defense, you will win games in the NFL. The Saints did not do either thing well and yet they covered the spread in 11 games. Taking a closer look inside the numbers, they covered 2 games by 1 point and one game by a half a point; every season there will be such a team that just seems to get lucky ATS. One thing to keep in mind with regards to the Saints is that they finished 6-1 ATS at home, in their dome. (Their other “home” game was played in London.)

Offensive Analysis

With Sean Payton calling plays on offense, the Saints have led the NFL in total yards in 2 out of the last 3 seasons. QB Drew Brees is the perfect complement for Payton’s aggressive play-calling style as Brees has a good accurate arm and make good decisions most of the time. Saints fan are praying that Brees stays upright, as back-up QB Joey Harrington waits in the wings and he will struggle if called upon to run this “west-coast” offense. It is time for RB Reggie Bush to step up, play hurt and act as if playing football is actually a top priority for him. He has not yet played a string of games up to his true potential. He is dangerous once he gets an outside lane but struggles running in-between the tackles. Bush does bring excitement to Special Teams in returning punts. The Saints released RB Deuce McAlister but he shouldn’t be missed as RB Pierre Thomas played well in Deuce’s role last year. The Wide Receivers for the Saints are unknown on a national level but are productive weapons. WR Marcus Colston battled injuries last season but runs good routes and is sure-handed. WR Lance Moore had a breakout season in 2008 and has a bright future. Devery Henderson is perfect for Payton’s offense and delivers the big play. WR Robert Meachem and TE Jeremy Shockey are both guy with great potential and show it to us once in a while, but for one reason or another have failed to fully develop their talents. Scoring, especially in domes, will not be a problem for New Orleans this season.