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Home / Articles / November Weather Hype

November Weather Hype

Matt Baiungo
Matt Baiungo

In the 2003-2004 Station Casino's NFL Football Challenge, Matt won the last four week's contest with a 15-5 ATS record and collected his share of the $10,000 prize. Numerous documented Top 10 finishes in all sports also appear on this handicapper's impressive resume.
By: Matt Baiungo     Date: Nov 20, 2006
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It’s that time of year when weather plays a huge role in the outcome of many games. By paying attention to the weather reports around the country, you can benefit in a couple of ways. First, if potential bad weather is being reported early in the week, you might want to take a look at the total. By taking a lead on the number, it sets you up in a great situation if the weather report turns out to be accurate. You can then buy back the adjusted number at kickoff and try to play for a middle. If the total lands between key numbers like 41 and 37, then this would be the strategy to employ. Or you can stand pat with the best number, and let the game play out. Over the long haul, I’d say you’re better off playing it this way when the key numbers are not involved. It simply comes down to personal preference though and you should determine your action on a case by case basis.

Let’s take a look at the Jets/Patriots game from a couple of weeks back in which bad weather played a huge role. The total sat at 37 ½ for the entire week. On Sunday morning, the sky opened up and the rain was coming down in buckets. This was not a report I got, but instead an eyewitness account as I am currently back in Boston. Knowing the awful field condition of Gillette Stadium regardless of weather, I knew the field would be complete mud. I played the under, and while talking to another handicapper, I relayed to him the weather report along with the expected field conditions. To my surprise, the line never came down and it closed at 37 ½. If any of you watched the game, you saw two teams playing the conditions more than playing each other. And that is the second way in which you can use bad weather games as a handicapping tool for future games. What I mean by that is this: It wasn’t a case of the Jets out-playing the Patriots to earn the win. It was more like they took advantage of the sloppy conditions that caused the Patriots to make many, many mistakes. QB Tom Brady looked handcuffed out there, and he played like he was standing in quicksand. Had the field been in normal playing condition, got to believe the outcome would have been totally different. Homer glasses say the Patriots would have won.

For those unaware of what really transpired, they upgraded the Jets win and downgraded the Patriots because of the loss. For me, the game was a toss out. I ignored the results because I saw how affected the teams were by the weather conditions. Taking a peek back at yesterday’s results, the Jets garnered some attention while the Patriots were ignored in the betting market. This has to do with the previous week’s results, and those who were unaware of the above info are the ones that backed the Jets and faded the Patriots. The lesson here is to pay attention to the weather reports and follow up with the true results if the conditions affected the outcome.

The month of November presents some great opportunities for us sports bettors. The NFL and college football are in full swing, the NBA tipped-off and is off and running, and college basketball is a week old. The linesmakers have tremendous obstacles to overcome in November. They need to post lines on every game, and we get to exploit them. We have a huge advantage because we can pick and choose while selecting the plays that have the most value. November is the month where the books are most vulnerable, and Matty B Sports looks to expose those weaknesses night in and night out in both football and basketball. November is our best and busiest month by far.

A lot of things in this world are driven by hype. Just look at the insane happenings regarding the release of PlayStation 3. Can you believe the prices this system is getting on EBay? Totally crazy considering in a few months they will be a dime a dozen and readily available in stores everywhere. It just shows that people will flock to things as long as the hype is there. Sports thrive on this concept, and this weekend was supposed to be a college football fan’s dream weekend. Michigan at Ohio St mid afternoon, and then Cal at USC in primetime. But after the previous week’s results, the West Coast showdown was no longer being hyped and barely got mentioned. It all depends on who is the flavor of the month, or more like the flavor of the week. Hype draws ratings, ratings attract advertisers, and advertisers pay the networks huge sums of money. Bottom line: It’s all about the Benjamin’s, baby.


 


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