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Everyone knows about Yards Per Rush, Yards Per Pass and Yards Per Play when handicapping CFB. In this article, I'll take a look at the NCAA’s best and worst teams in three key yet often overlooked statistical categories: Net Punting, Penaltyy Yardage and Turnover Margin. The way I use the first two categories is that I don’t usually like to lay points with teams that are very bad in these categories ESPECIALLY WHEN COMPARED TO THEIR OPPONENTS. I also pay special attention to advantages in these categories in games that I expect to be low scoring games, as these categories really influence field position. As for turnover margin, you must realize when a team is going good only because of lucky bounces, but also place premiums on teams that protect the ball and play opportunistic defense… It’s a fine line. Teams that fall in the “bad” or “good” for at least two categories are in bold. Net Punting: GOOD: Georgia Tech (41.1), Texas (40.5), Utah (40.3), NMSt (40.2), Central Mich (39.7), Baylor (39), Aub (38.9), Memphis (38.7), Cal (38.6), Florida (38.5), Wake (38.4). E.Mich (38.3), Notre Dame Bad: FIU (25.7), B.Green (27.7), W.Mich (29), S.Fla (29.2), Illinois (29.2), Duke (29.4), Fresno (29.4), Houston (29.4), Buff (30), Akron (30.1), Kent (30.2), Oregon (30.3)
Penalty YPG Good: NW (29.4), Air Force (30.6), PSU (33.7), Stan (34.2), Iowa St (34.4), Memphis (34.5), Virginia (34.6), Illinois (34.8), Miss (34.9), Clemson (35), Nevada (35.2), Tenn (35.6), SJSt. (35.9) Bad: WVU (78.8), NMSt. (78.1), Akron (75.1), AZSt. (72.2), S.Fla (72.1), Miami (71.9), Toledo (71.6), Idaho (71.5), T.Tech (69.6), FIU (68.6), Oregon St. (65.9) Turnover Margin Good: Bama (+13), Nevada (+12), Michigan (+12), W. Mich (+12), BYU (+11), Syracuse (+11), Cal (+11), Ohio St. (+11), Texas (+11), Pitt (+10), Boston College (+9), Boise (+9), Air Force (+8 in 8 games) Bad: Army (-16), UNC (-13), Illinois (-11), Stan (-11), Tulane (-9), N. Texas (-9), NMSt. (-9), Troy (-8 in 8 games ), NCSt. (-8)
| Erik Scheponik | |
| Erik's BCS Championship 2-for-1 He's not just releasing this because it's a big game. Erik has been on the Ok/Florida showdown since the bowl lines first came out. Get Side and Total of this excellent mathchup, backed by his trademark detailed analsyis, and finish the CFB contest on a winning note. | |
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