Attached is a pdf of my speed ratings. My top 3 rated for the Derby finished 1st, 2nd, and 3rd with the tri paying $440. We missed the boat on that one, but like I mentioned in the Derby report, there are a lot of other factors besides the fastest horse that wins these races. So if you want, there’s no reason not to box the top 3 in this race as a saver to my main recommendations.

It’s no secret that the top two Derby finishers, Street Sense and Hard Spun, are the ones to beat in the Preakness. That’s no secret as Street Sense is listed as the 7-5 favorite while Hard Spun is the second choice at 5-2. But there are some reasonable question marks against both.

Street Sense was awesome in the Derby rallying from 19th to win. While he did get the dream trip along the rail, that still takes a lot of energy to do that. History also tells us that this will have him a little empty in the Preakness. There have been 8 other horses since 1990 who won the Derby in similar fashion, and of the eight, 7 of them ran back in the Preakness and lost. He might also be forced to be closer to the pace than what he’s used to, and that often leads a horse not to fire his best. He’s at his best as a deep closer, but the shorter distance and the smaller field might force him to move too early which could cause him to hang. Yes, Street Sense is the best horse in the race and he rates atop my speed ratings, but at odds on we’ll look to beat him.

Hard Spun should have been my top play in the Derby after re-analyzing the race, but I overlooked some key indicators that pointed to him. That’s on me, especially as he went off at 10-1. Now, at odds of 5-2, we’ll try to beat him as well. Hard Spun enters off back-to-back 100 + Beyer numbers after never running higher than a 95 in his previous races, and that should mean he’ll regress in this race. He also worked 5 furlongs in :57 and change right before the Derby. Then he ran an awesome race in the Derby leading almost gate to wire, but he now wheels back in two weeks after working super fast pre-Derby and running 2 consecutive bang-up races. He will not be on an easy lead either, so he’ll have to stalk and use more speed early which could have him empty in the lane. Hard Spun is definitely capable of turning the tables on Street Sense, but at short odds we’ll look to beat him as well.

There are two horses that I give a legit shot to upset this field, and I’m torn between the two as far as my top selection goes. Curlin and Circular Quay have every right to improve greatly off their Derby performances. Both had rough trips at Churchill; Curlin broke well but had to steady early heading into the first turn. For a horse with only three previous races and never worse than 5 ½ lengths off the pace to be 13th and 12 lengths behind at first call, he was definitely up against it. But he made a huge middle move improving 5 spots and gaining 7 ½ lengths to get into contention, but was forced 5 wide turning for home en route to finishing third. The Derby was a great learning experience for Curlin, but did it take too much out of him? His subsequent workout was unimpressive going 4 furlongs in :51, so maybe. But all indications from his camp say he’s doing phenomenal and sitting on a huge race. I think so too.

Circular Quay was the “wiseguy” horse in the Derby. Not sure why though as he was entering off an 8 week layoff, a proven disadvantage heading into such a demanding race. His trip was more like he ran a 1 ½ as he was in constant trouble from the start. He broke 18th and was 18 lengths off the lead at first call while swing wide around the first turn. Similar to Curlin, he made a huge middle move (alongside Street Sense) making-up 7 ¼ lengths down the backstretch which got him to just 5 ¾ lengths from the lead. He was still in 13th position despite being that, and while Street Sense was down on the rail, Circular Quay was hung out wide turning for home. He was again bumped at the 5/16’s pole. What I like about him is the fact that after improving 7 ¼ lengths he then lost 4 ¼ lengths of that back, but still had the stamina to improve lengths and positioning at the wire. He needed that race after the 8 week layoff, so he should be a lot fresher in this race than the other Derby runners. He had a good 4 furlong move (:48 and change) after the Derby which proves that he’s fit as a fiddle heading into this race. At 8-1 on the morning line, Circular Quay provides plenty of value for a recommended win bet.

I’d be very surprised if one of the above four horses didn’t win. So putting it all together, here is how we’ll play it.

Top Selection(s): Play across the board. Win, Place, and Show

Play to Win only:

# 4 Curlin (7-2)

All of these wagers will be made using a base of $2 to make it easier.

$2 Exacta Box = $12

# 3 Circular Quay + # 4 Curlin + # 9 CP West

$2 Exacta Box = $16

# 3 Circular Quay + # 7 Hard Spun

# 3 Circular Quay + # 8 Street Sense

# 9 CP West + # 7 Hard Spun

# 9 CP West + # 8 Street Sense

Note: No Curlin exactas with the favorites because the payoff would be minimal.

$2 Tri Box = $24

# 3 Circular Quay + # 4 Curlin + # 7 Hard Spun + # 9 CP West

$2 Tri Part Wheel = $42

# 3 Circular Quay with # 4 Curlin with All

# 3 Circular Quay with All with # 4 Curlin

# 4 Curlin with # 3 Circular Quay with All

# 4 Curlin with All with # 3 Circular Key

All with # 3 Circular Quay with # 4 Curlin

All with # 4 Curlin with # 3 Circular Quay

Good luck with your own plays as well. Don't go overboard as it is just one race.

Matty Matty B Sports