The Abuse of Technical Handicapping

Everywhere you look in the sports service industry, you see them. Numerous trends and angles used as a shorthand method to predict a team's performance based on their past performance. They are also used to catch the reader and prospective client's eye. "The Dragons are an awesome 7-0$ as home dogs off no more than 2 SU losses when against a team whose winning pct. is between .500 and .600 the last 30 years, but only if that team didn't win their last game outright and the Dragons did not lose their last game by more 7." Now, this may be an exaggeration, but technical handicapping is being greatly abused by many, especially by SOME those who sale yearly annuals, and those who sell plays online. Eye-popping "100%" (or something very close to it) systems are used to justify selections, and get the customer's attention in the hopes of garnering their business. While I DO USE TECHNICAL HANDICAPPING, I use it as a supplement to all of the statistical, fundamental, and situational analysis that I do. I believe that the game is won and lost on the field THAT DAY, and that trends, angles, and the like, only tell us what happened in the past, not necessarily what will happen from here on out. Don't get me wrong, there are some great technical handicappers out there, and these guys do win using their elaborate databases of past results. However, there is a bad side to technical handicapping as well. Some of these systems are simply not true, and others are completely worthless. Here are some questions and factors you should ask yourself when considering whether a trend or system could be useful to predict future outcome:

1. Does the trend make sense? Does it really matter that some NBA team is 4-0 on Wednesday's? Or that an NCAA football team that has three coaches the last 5 seasons are 5-0 ATS in Game 2 of the season? Not at all. Does it really matter that Team A has never failed to cover the spread after losing to Team B? Well, they've played Team B, who is in the other side of their conference 8 times in the last 25 years, splitting the 8 games. Do you really think that those 4 games can help us predict the outcome of today's matchup? Question #3 kinda overlaps with this. Use common sense.

2. Is the trend or system too complex? The more variables that are added to any trend or system, the more likely that any connection between past and present is totally random. Remember, if you stare at anything long enough you are bound to find something. Whether that "something" is useful or not is another story. The "Dragons" example above is an exaggeration, but I'm sure you catch my drift on these elaborate "systems" that add in variable after variable after variable after variable…

3. Is the sample size too small? The 6-0 Game 2 example above, besides being totally worthless, is kind of short on sample size, don't you think? If you were going to put any stock into this type of system, wouldn't 28-6$ be more impressive than this "100%" system? Again, more common sense, but desperate bettors who think professional handicappers have the magic potion, love to see that 100% ad. Most of the time, these are the same guys that believe in "Locks" and "Bailouts". Also, consider how long of a time period the system spans.

4. Does the angle actually exist? Either do your own research, or make sure you are getting the angle from a reputable source. A lot of stuff you read on online message boards is greatly exaggerated. Do you really want to use a system provided to you by "Bookmaker Soup" on the "Lock, Stock, and Barrel" message board?

5. Why has this system or trend has been successful? Why do NFL teams that start the season 0-4 make good bets the rest of the season when at home? Answer: Because these teams have been etched as BAD in the public's mind and perhaps their opponents' mind, thus creating value in the line, and perhaps lack of focus from the opposing team. The teams also wants to salvage something for their loyal home crowd the rest of the season after a bad start. Why at one point a couple years back was Rice on a 14-2$ run as a conference HD? Because they did a great job of running a wishbone attack, eating up the clock, and teams simply could not pull away from them. Home underdogs that win the rushing battle are 80% winners long-term in college football. The Owls usually won the rushing battle, executing their option attack well, throwing no more than 10 –12 times a game. Ask and answer these type of questions when considering a system's worth

6. Realize there are other forms of handicapping. Technical Handicapping can be very useful. But realize that TECHNICAL HANDICAPPING SALES. I use other forms of handicapping, and would never release a play soley on a strong system or trend. Ads for my plays do not say 100% anywhere in the introduction. However, it is hard for me to make my ads for particular plays look as "catchy" as those screaming 100% NEVER LOST systems. Believe what you want in regards to these ads, but realize there are other and in my opinion, stronger, factors in sports handicapping than technical analysis.

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