Prior to going back to Navy as the head coach in 2002 (he was their offensive coordinator in `95 and `96), Johnson spent 8 years as Hawaii’s offensive coordinator. Johnson also has two 1-AA championships under his belt after winning back-to-back titles in `99 and `00 while at Georgia Southern.

As you can see, Paul Johnson has a winning track record over his coaching career. Johnson was in high demand from some big-name programs for the past few years, and after turning down numerous jobs, he signed on to be Georgia Tech’s head coach in December of 2007.

Johnson runs a triple option offense; an offense that is very difficult to stop even though opposing teams know it’s coming. Heading into last year, many questioned if Johnson’s triple option would be successful in the talent rich ACC conference. Johnson and the Yellow Jackets silenced those critics after going 9-4 (8-3 ATS) and earning a trip to the Chick-fil-A bowl. Georgia Tech immediately rewarded Johnson by giving him a 50% pay raise making him the ACC’s highest paid coach at $2.45 million per year.

But was that move a bit premature? Based on the only thing we care about, beating the pointspread, we absolutely think so.

Over the past couple of years, I’ve heard others mention Paul Johnson’s name quite often when it comes to his pointspread success. And a lot of that talk got steam last year while Johnson and Georgia Tech were on their way to covering 73% of their games. But I’m afraid those same guys have missed the party, and they’ll be paying for it going forward if they plan on betting Paul Johnson on the blind.

During his time at Navy, Johnson’s teams went 44-33 (57.1%) against the spread. Last year, Georgia Tech went 8-3 against the spread. So, over the past 7 years between Navy and Tech, Johnson’s teams are 52-36 (59%) against the spread. That’s been a winning bet on the blind for seven years which is certainly a bankroll builder.

But let’s break these numbers down further. As an underdog, Johnson’s teams are a money making 28-16 to the number for a whopping 63.6%. That leaves us with this. As a favorite, Johnson is “only” 24-20 (54.5%) against the spread. Still a winner, but not as profitable.

Here’s where the myth and the math of Paul Johnson come into play. As a single digit favorite, Johnson’s teams are 13-9 (59%). Again a winner, but these numbers come with an asterisk* as the title above subtly indicates.

While at Navy, Johnson’s teams were just 9-8 as a single digit favorite which means Georgia Tech went 4-1 in that role in 2008. Last year, his team was good all around which figured because the ACC teams had no clue how to stop Johnson’s triple option. They had zero experience facing the triple option, and Tech was at a huge advantage week in and week out.

But there was a big indicator to why we think things are going to be a lot different facing ACC and SEC opponents every year. Despite winning 9 games and covering 8 of them, Tech was held under 21 points in 7 of those games which speaks to the caliber of opponents that they will be facing every week. The speed and the athletes are much bigger and faster, and once they get familiar with defending the triple option, Tech’s edge will be negated. I see no possible way that Tech runs for over 400 yards consistently on the Georgia's, Virginia Tech’s, and Miami Fla's of the world.

There are two examples that can back this up. In their bowl game last year, Georgia Tech was a 4 ½-point favorite over LSU. And with a month to prepare for that game, LSU stymied the run allowing only 164 yards. The fact that LSU was an underdog in that game was an absolute joke, and we took advantage of that overlay pretty good.

Last Thursday night, Tech was once again a 5-point favorite over ACC opponent Clemson. And we played Clemson in that game based on many of the above facts. Tech did rush for 301 yards, but 82 of those yards came on the first play from scrimmage. So they “really” ran for 219 yards on 48 carries which isn’t all that impressive for a team that can only run the ball, and for a team that ran for 273 yards per game last year. Tech’s offense only scored 16 of the 30 points as two touchdowns came on a punt return and a fake field goal. They won 30-27, but failed to cover the number to our delight.

I know it’s only one game, and statistics from one game are pretty much meaningless. But we’re being proactive here in saying that it’s going to be profitable in playing against Paul Johnson’s Georgia Tech team when they are laying points into the upper echelon of ACC and SEC teams.

As I said earlier, Paul Johnson is one heck of a college football coach. But that doesn’t mean we can’t bet against his teams. I have no intentions of playing against a Paul Johnson team ever when an underdog (as they are this week at Miami) because of his impressive 28-16 spread mark in that role. But I have no reservations whatsoever of going against him when laying points into BCS conference talent.

To further illustrate why, look at this. At Navy, Johnson was 9-8 vs. the spread as a single digit favorite and 8-5 to the number at - 7 or less. But take a peek at the opponents he was laying points into: Ball St, Air Force, Tulsa, Rutgers (3x) won one, lost 34-0 and 48-27, Duke (2x), Rice, (2x), Army (2x), Colorado St, and Northwestern.

Yikes. No big boys in that group. More like the weak sisters of the poor. Being a favorite over Clemson, Virginia Tech, and Georgia is a whole different ball game that being a favorite over the group above.

Conclusion: Georgia Tech laying points against ACC or SEC teams will be a losing proposition going forward.

Next week we’ll tell you how to take advantage of NFL turnovers and how to use them to turn a profit.