When I’m introduced to strangers and am asked what I do for a living, my response, most of the time, just generates more questions. Now, don’t get me wrong. I certainly love what I do and enjoy answering why I think Team A will cover this week or if I have the inside information on Team B’s starting QB. However, if you studied football 90 hours a week looking for certain trends, while knowing and understanding why Vegas puts out the lines they do; just about anyone with some intellect could handicap football. But, most people don’t. Either they don’t have the time or want to put in the effort or just don’t understand the mechanics of it. And that’s where I come in. Plain and simple; I know how to handicap College Football.

I’m not here to brag or boast about my past winning percentages or documented titles, but come to you as a professor willing to divulge some “secrets” about how to cap college football.

Now, I won’t be giving away all my knowledge, otherwise I’d be out of a job. But I think it would be good for the average bettor to understand why I chose each game each week. And I’m not just talking about the X’s and O’s or my written analysis of the game. I’m talking about something deeper. This is a game that can be and is beaten by professionals, such as myself, each and every season and I’d like to pass some of that information along to you, the reader.

This will be a season-long Memoir, if you will, about each game I select and my thought process that went into making the selection. I hope you enjoy it.

LSU -16.5 over Miss. St- Winner
This was one of the simplest games of the week. LSU’s defense is the best in the nation as far as I’m concerned (2nd in 2006) and knew Miss. St would not be able to move the ball. As soon as I grabbed the 16.5, it shot up and stayed around 17.5 for the next couple of weeks. Gameday hit and I saw the line jump up to 22 knowing this is a huge public play. The line finally settled back down at 19.5 and was an easy cover.

Miami, OH +6 over Ball St- Winner
The public was all over Ball St as they were known as the MAC school that almost beat Michigan last season and has a great quarterback. Miami went 2-10 last year, but no one outside of Ohio knew that was mainly due to tons of injuries. And with all those starters now healthy, this Miami team could play. And play they did, scoring a dramatic touchdown in the closing seconds to pull off the outright W. A lot of professionals had this selection as the line should have been closer to a PK, but Vegas knew the public would be all over the Cardinals.

Georgia Tech +3 over Notre Dame- Winner
My favorite play on the board by far. I called an outright GT win back in June before the line even came out. ND has one of the largest followings in the nation, which also inflates the line more than usual because people will continue to fire on ND because they are Notre Dame. This game actually dropped to a PK at game time- which is what it should have opened at. Certain teams tend to be “overvalued” each and every year regardless of record, leading to many great opportunities to cash. ND falls into that category.

Arizona +6 over BYU- Loser
My first loss and boy, was it a tough one to watch. UA got one first down in the entire first half, but was only trailing 13-0. I made this play because BYU lost their very talented QB John Beck and RB Curtis Brown, who accounted for nearly all of the Cougars points last year. And because they had such a great 2006, this would be another public darling that I could take advantage of; knowing Arizona has a rock solid defense (allowed 18 ppg in Pac 10 play last season) that wouldn’t give up much. Tons of UA money came in late, forcing the bookmakers to drop the line from 5.5 to 3.5 right before kick-off. Though it didn’t matter as UA’s offense was inept all game long.

South Carolina -29 over UL Lafayette- Loser
I locked this play in, in the middle of August before QB Blake Mitchell got suspended. I stuck with it after the suspension because of Spurrier’s past, knowing he likes to run up the score on weaker opponents. SC went 3-1 ATS in non-conference play the last two years in September. However, with Georgia on deck, I should have known SC would have a vanilla offense and just do enough to win. The line didn’t really move all that much as it re-opened at 28 when the suspension was announced.

Oklahoma St +7 over Georgia- Loser
Plain and simple, I overvalued Oklahoma St-especially on the road and undervalued Georgia. To be honest, I’m still not sold on Stafford and Co. but they played very well Saturday night. I figured with such an experienced Okie St offense that averaged over 35 ppg last year and an inexperienced Bulldog defense, Reid should be able to keep the Cowboys in it. The line dropped to 6.5, which doesn’t happen that often as 7 is one of the magical numbers in bookmaking.

Texas Tech/SMU Over 59.5- Loser
Each week and throughout the year, you will encounter games that should have hit. This is one of them. Texas Tech throws up just under 50 and SMU can’t muster 10- a team that was averaging over 35ppg at home in 2006. The line skyrocketed all afternoon, finally settling at 62. I decided when I locked in my pick, to play the Over on anything under 60, however if the line was over that, I’d play the value and the Under. As you see, the line was a tad under 60; therefore I felt the Over was the play. Unlucky that it didn’t hit; yes, but those types of things happen each week and you’ve just got to brush it off and move on.

Florida St -150 over Clemson- Loser
Florida St/Clemson Under 45.5- Winner
I decided to do these two games together as they are correlated with each other. My thoughts were that both had excellent defenses (both finished in the top 15 in total defense in 2006) and the FSU offense was smart enough to understand the new offense by Jimbo Fisher and produce. But that didn’t happen as FSU looked lost up until the end of the 3rd quarter. I knew it would be a low-scoring game and the total actually dropped to 44 for a while before kick-off. The line fluttered back-and-forth between 3, 3.5 and 4 which told me there were tons of FSU backers forcing the books to increase the line, however not enough to keep it there.

Week 1 is now complete and I’m already looking at Week 2’s lines and match-ups. There are definitely some that are intriguing. Check back next Tuesday for another edition of The Tuesday Hangover.
 

Chris Copeland
	CFB Friday Game of the Day Buffalo travels to Bowling Green to take on the Falcons, in what will be for first place in the MAC East division. Chris is off a 1-0-1 night on Wednesday and is the #1 college football handicapper here at 10starpicks. "Fellas, 1-0-1 on Wednesday, and #1 at 10star by a ton. Let's build that bankroll heading into my MONSTER Saturday. Don't miss it!!"

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