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Handicappers Blog
Free Picks, Betting Tips and Handicapper Buzz





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  50 articles found
NFL: A Game of Mistakes
Erik Scheponik Aug 26, 2008  

Last season in the NFL, teams that committed less (forced more) turnovers than their opponent logged an impressive 162-39 (81%) mark on the field, and a 155-41-5 record ATS (79%) (against the pointspread). Very impressive yes, but actually down from the '06 season where the teams went 173-38 SU (straight up) (82%), and 166-40-5 ATS (81%). In 2005, the numbers were 124-44 (74%) SU, and a 131- ...  read more

Stopping The Run In The NFL
Matt Baiungo Aug 26, 2008  

Last year, I wrote an article titled: Under A Buck midway through the NFL season. So with a new season set to kick-off in 10 days, I figured I’d update this article to include the seasonal numbers from 2007.

Here is the updated version of my Under A Buck article:

In the NFL, many games are won at the line of scrimmage. Teams that can run the ball and teams th ...  read more

Some Handicapping 101 Truisms
Erik Scheponik Aug 26, 2008  

Sports Handicappers such as myself spend countless hours sifting through information, crunching numbers, and searching for line value. The best of us go all out in hopes for a 55-60% season ( 52.38% is the breakeven point assuming a 10% vigorish or juice), with very few of us actually able to achieve the higher end of that range. Sports Handicapping is the ultimate GRIND, there is no magic, and ...  read more

Steve Merril's MLB Report (Monday, Aug. 25)
Steve Merril Aug 25, 2008  

Below is a free MLB selection for Monday night. You can also get an awesome MLB Over/Under Grand Slam on Steve Merril’s Premium Selections page! as his RED~HOT 14-5 run continues!

SAN DIEGO -105 (Peavy/Haren) – 10:05 pm ET #908

The Padres would ...  read more

August 18th Tuesday Morning Coffee
John Ryan Aug 23, 2008  
I have now won six straight NFLX pre-season premium games. I have been handicapping all sports for 15 years and I simply want to invite you to make a solid commitment to my Ai Simulator methodology. In doing so, I can fully guarantee that you will have a high probability of making a significant amount of profits. Best of all you will only pay when you win for each individual card. I nailed a 7* ...  read more
How the Brett Favre trade effects Bettors
Charlie Scott Aug 22, 2008  

Now that the Brett Favre circus has moved from Green Bay to New York, let's take a look on how the move effects Football bettors. In late July the media brought us the Brett Favre/Packers soap opera 24 hours a day and now it has moved to New York, the media capital of the world.

How does the Brett Favre media saga effect football bettors ? The answer is public overreaction. When the Jet ...  read more

Steve Merril's NFL Report (Friday, Aug. 22)
Steve Merril Aug 22, 2008  

Below is a free NFL winner for Friday night. You can also get an awesome NFL Steamroller Blowout for Friday night on Steve Merril’s Premium Selections page!

OVER 36 (Titans/Falcons) – 7:30 pm ET #245

The Titans have been an excellent offensive team in the preseason the past two years, averaging 27.2 points during their past five games with total scores of 51, 45, 44 ...  read more

Ryan's Tuesday Morning Coffee - August 18, 2008
John Ryan Aug 19, 2008  
Tuesday Morning Coffee Giants at the Jets Saturday August 23, 2008 7:00 EST Kick-Off

I have now won four straight NFLX pre-season premium games. I have been handicapping all sports for 15 years and I simply want to invite you to make a solid commitment to my Ai Simulator methodology. In doing so, I can fully guarantee that you will have a high probability of making a significant amount of ...  read more

College Football Balance
Matt Baiungo Aug 19, 2008  

Last year, I wrote an article titled: 2 + 2 = 4 midway through the college football season. So with a new season set to kick-off next Thursday night, I figured I’d update this article to include the seasonal numbers from 2007.

Here is the updated version of my 2 + 2 = 4 article:

There is a simple way to judge a team’s performance in college fo ...  read more

Oakland Raiders-From Charlie Scott's 2008 Pro Football Preview/
Charlie Scott Aug 19, 2008  
OAKLAND RAIDERS

2007 S/U: 4-12; ATS: 6-10; O/U: 10-6

2007 SPREAD FACT: 0-4 ATS AS A FAVORITE

2007 SPREAD FACT: 2-6 ATS @ HOME

2007 TOTAL FACT: 6-2 OVER ON THE ROAD

2007 TOTAL FACT: 7-3 OVER TOTALS 40 OR LESS

OFFENSIVE ANALYSIS:

Although the Raiders offensive stats in 2007 are not spectacular, if given the chance Head Coach Lane Kiffin ha ...  read more

Steve Merril's MLB Report (Thursday, Aug. 14)
Steve Merril Aug 14, 2008  

Below is a free Daytime winner for Thursday afternoon. You can also get an awesome 2-0 **NFL PARLAY** for Thursday night on Steve Merril’s Guaranteed Selections page!

ARIZONA -140 (Haren/Rusch) – 3:05 pm ET #953

The Diamondbacks were swept by Colorado in the NL Championship Series last year, but Arizona has gotten their revenge this season with a 9-2 record versus t ...  read more

Pac 10 Conference Breakdown
Chris Copeland Aug 13, 2008  
Today, I'll break down the Pac 10...

1. USC 10-2 (8-1)
The defense will shine one again; but replacing four OL men will prevent the Trojans from a BCS Title appearance.

2. Arizona St 9-3 (7-2)
QB Rudy Carpenter might be the best QB in the Pac 10 and, along with fifteen other starters; the Sun Devils should be good again this season.

3 ...  read more
Tuesday Morning Coffee August 12, 2008
John Ryan Aug 12, 2008  

Tuesday Morning Coffee Carolina (1-0) versus Philadelphia (1-0) Lincoln Financial Stadium 8:00 EST

The Eagles played reasonably well in their first pre-season game at Pittsburgh. Reports in local papers has clearly under scored the positive tone of this team. McNabb is having one of his best pre-season camps and the team has an attitude that they are NOT done yet – referring to anot ...  read more

MLB Report (Tuesday, Aug. 12)
Steve Merril Aug 12, 2008  

Below is a free underdog play for Tuesday night. You can also get awesome late-night MLB **STEAMROLLER** BLOWOUT on Steve Merril’s Premium Selections page!

BALTIMORE +120 (Olsen/Sowers) – 7:05 pm ET #971

The Orioles fit a subset of my Underdog System tonight, and they are in solid current form offensively as they have scored 9, 9, 7, and 8 runs in each of their past ...  read more

Big Ten Conference Breakdown
Chris Copeland Aug 12, 2008  
This week, I'll take a look at the Big Ten...

1. Ohio St 11-1 (7-1)
With 20 returning starters and the top HS recruit in Terrelle Prior; the Buckeyes are destined for their third consecutive National Title appearance.

2. Wisconsin 10-2 (6-2)
The Badgers struggled on defense last year due to injuries. Well, those guys are back and the Badgers are ey ...  read more
MLB Report (Friday, Aug 8)
Steve Merril Aug 8, 2008  
Below is a free MLB play for Friday night. You can also get awesome MLB **GAME OF THE WEEK** on Steve Merril’s Premium Selections page as his RED~HOT 44-28 MLB run continues!

PITTSBURGH +1.5 -120 (Maholm/Blanton) - 7:05 pm ET #953

Statistically, the Pirates and Phillies are even offensively this season and Pittsburgh has the bet ...  read more

Mountain West Conference Breakdown
Chris Copeland Aug 7, 2008  
This week, the MWC is under the microscope...

t1. Utah 10-2 (6-2)
With sixteen returning starters, a duel-threat, experienced QB in Brian Johnson and TCU and BYU at home; the Utes should take home the MWC crown in 2008.

t1. TCU 9-3 (6-2)
A Week One win at New Mexico will give the Horned Frogs all kinds of momentum. TCU also sports the best defense ...  read more
Take Auburn
John Ryan Aug 5, 2008  
Tuesday August 5th, 2008 – Tuesday Morning Coffee The SEC has always been the best college football conference and this year is certainly no difference. The USA Today poll has been released and it is led by Georgia at Number 1. Other SEC teams are 5th ranked Florida, 6th ranked LSU, 11th ranked Auburn, 18th ranked Tennessee, and Alabama 26th ( most votes outside of the top-25 and just 8 points fr ...  read more
Carolina Panthers Excerpt From Charlie Scott Sports Pro Football Preview
Charlie Scott Aug 2, 2008  

CAROLINA PANTHERS

2007 S/U 7-9; ATS 8-8; O/U 6-10

2007 SPREAD FACT:: Covered Final 3 Games of 2007 season

2007 SPREAD FACT: 2-0 as a Road Favorite

1-3 as a Favorite at Home

2007 TOTAL FACT: Totals Line 39 or Higher 7-0 Under Totals- 6-2 Under at h ...  read more

WAC Breakdown
Chris Copeland Jul 26, 2008  
This week, I'll take the WAC under the microscope...

1. Fresno St 9-3 (7-1)
Expectations are high this year and if the defense can improve just a little bit, FSU could bring home their first WAC Title since 1999.

t2. New Mexico St 8-4 (6-2)
With 15 returning starters, including QB Chase Holbrook and WR Chris Williams, the Aggies should end its 47-s ...  read more
Dallas Cowboys 2008 Season Preview Partial Excerpt From E-Book
Charlie Scott Jul 23, 2008  

DALLAS COWBOYS

2007 S/U 13-4; ATS 9-8; O/U 10-7

2007 SPREAD FACT: STARTED THE SEASON 9-4 ATS; FINISHED SEASON 0-5 ATS.

2007 SPREAD FACT: 2-5 ATS WHEN FAVORITE OF 10 OR MORE POINTS

2007 TOTAL FACT: 4-1 OVER WITH TOTALS 48 AND HIGHER.

OFFENSIVE ANALYSIS:

QB Tony Romo enters his second seaso ...  read more

Conference USA Breakdown
Chris Copeland Jul 22, 2008  
This week, we break down C-USA...

East

1. East Carolina 8-4 (7-1)
If the Pirates can keep its fighting spirit alive after a most likely 0-2 start (@ VT, WVU), the rest of the schedule sets up nicely for ECU to reach the C-USA Title game.

2. Memphis 8-4 (6-2)
With seventeen returning starters, including ten defensive st ...  read more
Steve Merril's MLB Report (Thursday, July 17)
Steve Merril Jul 17, 2008  

Below is a free underdog play for Thursday night. You can also get awesome MLB Grand Slam **CRUSHER** on Steve Merril’s Premium Selections page as his RED~HOT 27-7 MLB run continues!

SAN DIEGO +100 (Peavy/Lohse) – 8:15 pm ET #953

The Padres vastly underachieved during the first half of the season, and they will now be a value t ...  read more

Mid American Conference Breakdown
Chris Copeland Jul 16, 2008  
This week at the Cappers Corner, I'll take a look at the MAC...

West

1. Central Michigan 9-3 (8-0)
QB Dan LeFevour and the Chippewa offense will explode again, and with 9 starters back on defense, it will be very tough to deny CMU a third straight MAC title.

2. Ball St 8-4 (5-3)
With 16 starters returning, including outstandi ...  read more
NFL Win Total Plays
John Ryan Jul 14, 2008  

I have been researching the NFL and College FB over the past several weeks in preparation for another successful and profitable season. I have found a few “total wins” plays for you to join me on. Parity has been the dominant word from the NFL administration and over the past several years it has offered up some great opportunities. Simply said, we are going to be contrarian in thought looking ...  read more

Steve Merril's MLB Report (Friday, July 11)
Steve Merril Jul 11, 2008  

Below is a free underdog play for Friday night. You can also get awesome MLB Steamroller Blowout on Steve Merril’s Premium Selections page as his RED~HOT 20-6 MLB run continues!

ATLANTA +135 (Reyes/Peavy) – 10:05 pm ET #913

The Braves remain an underrated team as they head into the second half of the season as they have been ex ...  read more

Steve Merril's MLB Report (Thursday, July 10)
Steve Merril Jul 10, 2008  
Below are two free plays for Thursday. You can also get awesome MLB Steamroller Blowout on Steve Merril’s Premium Selections page!

MINNESOTA +110 (Slowey/Rogers) – 1:05 pm ET #963

Minnesota is coming off an embarrassing 18-5 loss yesterday, but they should bounce-back today as they have their best pitcher on the mound. We also get solid line value with the better p ...  read more

Sun Belt Conference Breakdown
Chris Copeland Jul 8, 2008  
The college football season is a mere seven weeks away, so let’s get cracking on my annual conference predictions. This week, the Sun Belt Conference…

1. Florida Atlantic 9-3 (6-1)
With 17 starters returning, including QB Rusty Smith, the Owls are front-runners for a second straight Sun Belt championship.

2. Troy 7-5 (5-2)
Replacing do-everything ...  read more
Steve Merril's MLB Weekend Preview
Steve Merril Jul 4, 2008  

By Jason Crowe for Steve Merril Sports

It’s hard to remember a 4th of July without fireworks, hot dogs, a few beers and great baseball. A few of the notable series this weekend include a matchup between the two teams battling for the NL Central lead, Cubs @ Cardinals; AL East rivals, Red Sox @ Yankees; and the surprising Rays (I think taking the preceding Devil out of the ...  read more

Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Championship
Steve Merril Jul 3, 2008  

Most Americans celebrate Independence Day with an outdoor barbeque or with an assortment of fireworks, however another tradition is quickly gaining popularity and it involves eating an enormous amount of hot dogs in a very short period of time.

The first Nathan’s Famous Hot Dog-Eating Contest was held 92 years ago in 1916 in Coney Island, New York. Rumor has it that four immigrants had ...  read more

Steve Merril's MLB Report (Monday, June 30)
Steve Merril Jun 30, 2008  

Below is a free Over/Under for Monday night. You can also get a late-night MLB Steamroller Blowout on Steve Merril’s Best Bets selections page!

UNDER 8 -115 (Athletics/Angels) (Smith/Garland) - 10:05 pm ET #976

The Angels are ice-cold on offense and have scored 0, 0, and 1 run in their past three games. They are likely to struggle again tonight as my pitcher perfo ...  read more

Steve Merril's MLB Weekend Preview
Steve Merril Jun 27, 2008  

By Jason Crowe for Steve Merril Sports

The final weekend of Interleague play wraps up this weekend highlighted with an extended Subway Series in New York and the boys from the north side making the short trip to the south in Chicago.

Yankees @ Mets

The first game of an unusual four game series starts Friday afternoon at 2:05 pm ET in what will very possibly ...  read more

Betting the CFL
Steve Merril Jun 26, 2008  

By Reed Hogben for Steve Merril Sports

The general betting public usually leans to Favorites, Overs and the Home teams; therefore sportsbooks were probably happy campers after the 2007 CFL season.

Favorites and Underdogs went a perfect 50% at 36-36 ATS. Home Favorites let bettors down at 25-28 ATS, while Away Favorites made a little money at 11-8 ATS. Of those 36 covering ...  read more

NCAA Football Futures Betting: Trojans Looking Supreme
BetUS.com Jun 12, 2008  
As BetUS Sportsbook customers interested in college football betting start looking at individual conferences for this coming college grid sports betting season, it becomes clear that the USC Trojans ...  read more
Ross Benjamin Sunday 6/8/2008 Free Selection
Ross Benjamin Jun 7, 2008  
Minnesota (Slowey) @ White Sox (Floyd) 2:05 PM ET 6/8/2008
Play On: Under 9.0 (+110)

Both of these starting pitchers enter the game in good form off of their last 3 starts posting an identical WHIP of 0.95. In 4 road starts the Minnesota starting pitcher Slowey has posted a very good 2.45 ERA. In his last 9 starts Slowey has seen just 1 go over the total. In 5 starts at home this seas ...  read more

Beating the Number
Ross Benjamin May 13, 2008  
New Page 1

Beating the Number

By Ross Benjamin

...  read more
Player's Championship
John Ryan May 7, 2008  
The Players Championship – This is the first year that this great tournament, the 5th Major is being played in May. Weather in Ponte Vedra and that part of the Southeast can be extremely unpredictable in March. May still has it’s thunderstorms, but the weather forecast is a bit more predictable and reliable. I mention this only that the course will play different now, then in March. The water hole ...  read more
MLB News and Notes
Matt Baiungo May 5, 2008  

Boston and Tampa Bay played a home and away series over this past week, and the home team dominated going a perfect 6-0. The Devil Rays won the three games at Tropicana Field by a combined score of 10-5 with every game going under the total. The Red Sox won the three games at Fenway Park by a combined score of 26-10 with every game going over the total. Both Clay Buchholz and J ...  read more

Masters Plays for 2008
John Ryan Apr 9, 2008  
Masters Plays – This is an amazing lineup with only 6 players lined at 25- to 1 or better. Of course, that is the public belief that Tiger will win nearly automatically and that the only true contender is Mickelson. Since Mickelson did not look good last week it stands to reason that once Tiger gets the lead on Saturday, the Green Jacket will be then be tailored made for Tiger.

Currently at ...  read more

Coaching In The Final Four
Matt Baiungo Apr 4, 2008  

Who is more important, the coaches or the players? That debate has been ongoing forever in the world of sports. I have a very strong opinion on this subject, and my reasoning is strictly based on the results that I have tracked when focusing on spread results. To be honest, if I wasn’t a handicapper and a bettor, I’d view this subject as irrelevant. A casual fan could care less, and basical ...  read more

NCAA Final Four Preview
Charlie Scott Apr 3, 2008  

UCLA

Strengths: PG Collison is one of the premier defensive guards in the country. F Love is a strong, inside post player who can score and rebound. Coach Howland is one of the best coaches in the NCAA; his teams play great team defense and always seem to take a good shot on offense. UCLA has made the Final Four three straight years.

Weaknesses: UCLA has trouble sc ...  read more

Erik Scheponik's NCAA Tourney Preview
Erik Scheponik Mar 20, 2008  

Okay, so now its my turn to play Dick Vitale and Jay Bilas real quick. I really can’t fathom South Alabama making this tournament. Sure they have the nice win over Mississippi St., but shouldn’t they have at least made the finals of a conference tournament played on their home court? Especially when that conference is the lowly Sun Belt (RPI 15). I definitely would have given that spot to I ...  read more

West Bracket (Phoenix Region) Breakdown
Erik Scheponik Mar 19, 2008  

Analysis for top half of the bracket is by Erik Scheponik (ESI) and Matty Baiungo (Matty B Sports). Analysis on bottom half, and future rounds is entirely Erik Scheponik's (ESI). Enjoy and realize that line movement and further analysis can change/strenghten our opinion by game day.

UCLA (1) vs. Mississippi Valley St. (16)

Ben Howland has taken the Bruins to back- ...  read more

Projecting the Field on Selection Sunday
Chris Copeland Mar 16, 2008  
Here is the list of teams that, in my view, will be dancing in the NCAA Tournament.

1 seeds: North Carolina, Memphis*, UCLA*, Kansas/Texas winner
2 seeds: Kansas/Texas loser, Georgetown, Wisconsin, Tennessee
3 seeds: Duke, Louisville, Stanford, Xavier
4 seeds: Butler*, Notre Dame, UCONN, Purdue
5 seeds: Drake*, Marquette, Pitt*, Washington St
6 seeds: Va ...  read more
Bubble Watch: 3/15
Chris Copeland Mar 15, 2008  
Big day for bubble teams as St Joe’s, Kentucky and UNLV all reach lock status by virtue of winning or not playing. Ohio St lost and will most likely be on the outside looking in come Selection Sunday.

The mid-majors are right in the thick of things still as we head into the final weekend of play before Selection Sunday. And I will continue to reward them (ISU, VCU, USA) for playing ro ...  read more
Bubble Watch: 3/14
Chris Copeland Mar 14, 2008  
Wow. What else is there to say? Every single bubble team (outside of two A-10 teams and Texas A&M) lost yesterday. By virtue of not playing, Kansas St and Arkansas move into the tournament. Kentucky will most likely join them tomorrow.

The mid-majors are right in the thick of things still as we head into the final weekend of play before Selection Sunday. And I will continue to reward ...  read more
Bubble Watch: 3/13
Chris Copeland Mar 13, 2008  
Well, that was interesting. The Big East Tournament started off with a bang as Syracuse got demolished and will probably have home-court throughout the NIT, while West Virginia held on against Providence and, as long as they don’t get blown out today by UCONN, will enter lock status tomorrow.

Villanova now enters the Bubble Watch and still needs to beat Georgetown to lock up a spot. I ...  read more
Bubble Watch: 3/12
Chris Copeland Mar 12, 2008  
Last night was relatively a calm night as Western Kentucky and Butler took care of business, thus not bursting yet another bubble. The major Conference Tournaments get underway today and should provide some clarity in figuring out who's in and who's out.

Bubble Watch will now be updated daily.

There are 31 conference winners that receive automatic bids and 34 At-Large berths ...  read more
Bubble Watch: 3/11
Chris Copeland Mar 11, 2008  
Bubble teams cringed last night as San Diego upset Gonzaga and now the WCC looks to send 3 teams. South Alabama also lost and the Sun Belt now sends 2. Some good news for the bubble teams; Davidson won and will be the lone representative of the So-Con.

Bubble Watch will now be updated daily.

There are 31 conference winners that receive automatic bids and 34 At-Large berths a ...  read more
March Madness Brackets
Charlie Scott Mar 11, 2008  

It seems that all sports fans love to do some research to prepare for their NCAA pools this time of year. As fans begin to prepare putting together their 2008 bracket keep in mind one basic , but important fact, while the first round matchups are important, in most cases players must have the NCAA champion picked correctly in order to win the pool. Seldom is a bracket pool won without th ...  read more

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