Last season in the NFL, teams that committed less (forced more) turnovers than their opponent logged an impressive 162-39 (81%) mark on the field, and a 155-41-5 record ATS (79%) (against the pointspread). Very impressive yes, but actually down from the '06 season where the teams went 173-38 SU (straight up) (82%), and 166-40-5 ATS (81%). In 2005, the numbers were 124-44 (74%) SU, and a 131- ...  read more

Sports Handicappers such as myself spend countless hours sifting through information, crunching numbers, and searching for line value. The best of us go all out in hopes for a 55-60% season ( 52.38% is the breakeven point assuming a 10% vigorish or juice), with very few of us actually able to achieve the higher end of that range. Sports Handicapping is the ultimate GRIND, there is no magic, and ...  read more

Okay, so now its my turn to play Dick Vitale and Jay Bilas real quick. I really can’t fathom South Alabama making this tournament. Sure they have the nice win over Mississippi St., but shouldn’t they have at least made the finals of a conference tournament played on their home court? Especially when that conference is the lowly Sun Belt (RPI 15). I definitely would have given that spot to I ...  read more

Analysis for top half of the bracket is by Erik Scheponik (ESI) and Matty Baiungo (Matty B Sports). Analysis on bottom half, and future rounds is entirely Erik Scheponik's (ESI). Enjoy and realize that line movement and further analysis can change/strenghten our opinion by game day.

UCLA (1) vs. Mississippi Valley St. (16)

Ben Howland has taken the Bruins to back- ...  read more

Another Bracket Buster Weekend has come and gone, and handicappers should use what they learned this weekend as an aid for the postseason handicapping that lies just around the corner. Of course, as is the case with handicapping any other basketball game, the key is not just in charting the results, but interpreting why those results happened from a situational and fundamental point of view. ...  read more

To quote Lou Brown from the movie Major League “It’s all starting to come together” for the 3 NCAA and 1 NBA teams that Erik has circled to make some major noise down the stretch and into the postseason.

Louisville- Sometimes you can take coach’s interviews as mere coachspeak and other times there’s something to be learned. All you had to do is watch Rick Piti ...  read more

Here are some important factors to remember when handicapping the College Football Bowl Season. Enjoy, Good Luck, and Happy Holidays!

1. MOTIVATION- What teams truly do or do not want to be in that particular bowl game? Stay away from teams that may have expected to be in a much better bowl, especially if the loss occurred in their last 2 games. It is hard for a team to get ...  read more

Here’s some random thoughts, stats, and facts for all 32 teams in the NFL. The teams are listed in the order that they are ranked in my NFL Power Rankings.

1. New England- What can be said about these Pats that hasn’t already been said already? How about this one…They have scored in 29 out of 32 quarters this season. And as if they weren’t disgustingly good enough on bot ...  read more

- In a game where neither coach coached like they wanted to win the game, and the team that totally outplayed its opponent lost, Phillip Fulmer pulled a very stupid move, but got bailed out by a fresman kicker against South Carolina. With 1:20 and 2 timeouts left as South Carolina’s Ryan Succop lined up to kick a 48 yd. game winning FG…Fulmer calmer called a timeout to ice the kicker. Hey Ph ...  read more

Now that every NFL team has played 4 games (the majority have played 5, but this list has been under construction for about a week now), here are 25 totally random thoughts on the season thus far.

1. Nothing's changed...Success, both on the field and against the pointspread (ATS) in the NFL is still more dependent on turnovers than any other factor. Teams that win the turnover bat ...  read more

Here are SU and ATS results for each conference from NCAA Week 1 and 2, These results will help us over the early part of the season during out-of-conference matchups, and will be revisited at bowl season to gauge conference strength… Results of all conference matchups and matchups with 1AA (Sorry, that what I’ll always call ‘em!) competition are not included, but it has been noted if a conf ...  read more

Here is my list of 4 NFL teams that I feel enter the 2007 season a bit undervalued. Now I don’t expect all or even half of these teams to make the playoffs this season, I simply think they are being underrated by the media and perhaps the linesmaker and can improve off of last season. In the same article last season, the 5 teams I isolated as undervalued for ‘06 were: Atlanta, Baltimore, Minnes ...  read more

Here are ATS results for each conference from NCAA Week 1, along with some comments. These results will help us over the next couple of weeks while there are still alot of out-of-conference matchups, and will be revisited at bowl season to gauge conference strength… Results of all conference matchups and matchups with 1AA (Sorry, that what I’ll always call ‘em!) competition were not included. ...  read more

Northwestern- (Big 10) This team went through some growing pains last season after the tragic loss of HC Randy Walker, and some bad luck with the injury bug. However, I believe that new HC Pat Fitzgerald made the best of a bad situation in his first year at the helm at only 34 years of age. I think Fitzgerald has the makings of a very good head coach, and improvement was apparent o ...  read more

Last season in the NFL, teams that committed less (forced more) turnovers than their opponent logged an impressive 173-38 (82%)record on the field (SU), going 166-40-4 (81%) against the pointspread (ATS). Very impressive yes, but only slightly above the norm. In 2005, the numbers were 124-44 (74%) SU, and a 131-33 mark (80%) against the pointspread (ATS). In '04 these turnover winners logged ...  read more

Cleveland at Detroit Play CLEVELAND +285 or better

From a value standpoint there is only one way to bet this series as the Pistons were just -180 against Chicago, and now are laying nearly double that against a team that is better than the Bulls. Last year's series went a hard fought 7 games, and although if I had to make a play at even money, or a cold prediction, it would ...  read more

New Jersey/Toronto:

Miami at Chicago- Rematch from last year's opening round series won by Miami in 6. The Heat are almost impossible to handicap from a statistical sense because Shaq and Wade have only played 18 games together THE ENTIRE SEASON! The rest of the key pieces are back in place from last year's championship run, and Eddie Jones has also been added and is playing well at both e ...  read more

Florida vs. UCLA: The Rematch

The Bruins have finally gotten their wish and that is a chance at redemption against these Florida Gators, the team that outclassed them 73-57 in last year's NCAA championship. Both teams have handled the BULL'S EYE placed on their backs in very tough conferences this season. The Pac 10's other Elite 8 contestant (only conference with more than 1 ...  read more

Going to Atlanta- I could be wrong, but I don't rate the North Carolina Tar Heels as one of the top 6 teams that can win this tournament. Now that's not saying I don't think they are one most talented because I do, and in all honesty...They are probably #7 on my list. I'm just not sure that the Tar Heels can win a knock down, drag-out, low scoring slugfest that a Georgetown or ...  read more

Atlanta Bound- I'm going to go with the chalk here and pick Florida as I really think that this is the weakest bracket at least in terms of the top seeds. The Gators seem to have regained their edge after 3 straight double digit road losses in February, and statistically this team is almost a mirror of last year: truly dominant ...  read more

Indianapolis vs. Chicago Super Bowl XLI

The Bears have done it all season with opportunistic defense and special teams, as well as a big play, albeit consistent offense. They are well-coached on both sides of the ball, and dynamite on special teams. As much as people like myself who (for some strange and often fruitless reason) like to dig deep into box scores in the hope of findi ...  read more

So now we are on to the bowls, college football fans, and I am one of the few people out there proud to say that I hope we never go to a playoff system. (not that I don’t think a change should be made in the major bowls to determine a true Champ) The bowls are part of my holiday season, always have been, and I love handicapping them. That being said, I do believe that there are about 7-8 too ...  read more

Toronto Raptors- If TJ Ford stays healthy (a big if), the Raptors are loaded with young talent that will only get better as the year progresses. They started off bad enough that everyone has forgotten about them but are still allowing 5ppg less than last season. Not many teams have as much young, high-end talent.

Chicago Bulls- This team has had big 2nd halfs the l ...  read more

Everywhere you look in the sports service industry, you see them. Numerous trends and angles used as a shorthand method to predict a team's performance based on their past performance. They are also used to catch the reader and prospective client's eye. "The Dragons are an awesome 7-0$ as home dogs off no more than 2 SU losses when against a team whose winning pct. is between .500 and .600 the ...  read more

College Football Year End Rivalries

In my opinion the best time of the yearly sports calendar is late November College Football Rivalries. Two teams that are bounded by tradition, location and usually a combination of squaring off in a game that they have had circled since last year’s game ended. The emotion is high, the stadium is usually packed and the hitting is a little h ...  read more

Everyone knows about Yards Per Rush, Yards Per Pass and Yards Per Play when handicapping CFB. In this article, I'll take a look at the NCAA’s best and worst teams in three key yet often overlooked statistical categories: Net Punting, Penaltyy Yardage and Turnover Margin. The way I use the first two categories is that I don’t usually like to lay points with teams that are very bad in these c ...  read more

In issue #2 of ESI's THOUGHT PROCESS I highlighted 5 NFL Teams that I felt to be undervalued coming into the season , those teams were Baltimore, Atlanta, New England, NY Giants, and Minnesota. Those teams are an awesome 25-10 SU/24-11 $ thus far this season! Below, I have updated 2 NFL overvalued and 2 undervalued teams as we approach the second half of the s ...  read more