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Chris Copeland |
| Oklahoma State vs. Washington State (NCAAF) - Aug 30, 2008 7:00 PM EDT |
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| Play: Point Spread: -7/-104 Oklahoma State Pick Title: Week One Free Play |
Oklahoma St returns fifteen starters from last season including a solid QB in Zac Robinson. Robinson flourished in the spread offense and looked especially strong in spring camp.
Washington St is in rebuilding mode. After losing four-year starter QB Alex Brink and breaking in a new scheme with a new head coach, look for the Cougars to take a step back this season. Wazzu will implement a form of the no-huddle offense, but with no experienced QB, it will take some time to grasp Wulff's offense. The Cougs scoring defense ranked near the bottom of the barrel in D-I last season, so Robinson and the high-powered Cowboy offense should put up points at will.
Bottom line here is even though Oklahoma St has issues winning on the road; this might be their best team in some time. Look for both offenses to put up a lot of points, but the more experienced QB to make fewer mistakes which will lead to the Cowboys victory.
Oklahoma St- 42 Washington St- 31
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John Ryan |
| Wake Forest vs. Baylor (NCAAF) - Aug 28, 2008 8:00 PM EDT |
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| Play: Point Spread: 12/-109 Baylor Pick Title: Baylor |
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Ai Simulator 3* graded play on Baylor - AiS shows a 68% probability that Baylor will lose this game by 12 or fewer points. Love these early season DOGS that have 9 or more returning offensive starters along with the QB. That is the case for Baylor as they return 9 including the QB and this will be a dominant factor in this game. Wake Forest also has a history of not being a solid double digit favorite either noting they are 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) as a favorite of 10.5 to 21 points since 1992. Supporting this graded play and the returning starter phenomenon is a strong system posting a 75-36 ATS mark for 68% since 2002. Play on home dogs of 10.5 to 21 points with an experienced QB returning as starter. Don't laugh either as I strongly believe taking a 1* unit on the money line is a solid bet as well. I have seen this line at +450 and offers a great opportunity. We are not going to win a high percentage of these ML plays, but if we hit between 43 and 48% (last 5 seasons) then it will make a significant contribution to the bottom line.
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Tony Stoffo |
| Utah vs. Michigan (NCAAF) - Aug 30, 2008 12:00 PM EDT |
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| Play: Point Spread: 3.5/-111 Utah Pick Title: 5 units |
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Boy have things changed in Ann Arbor as the odds makers are giving little or no credit to this 08 version of Rich Rodriguez's new team making them just a 3 point favorite here. And the unknowing public has already started to bet the Wolverines with 72% of all bets placed. Yet the line has dropped on Michigan as the sharps know what his team is made up of. With new quarterbacks, a very inexperienced offensive line, and a group of Freshman running backs Sam McGuffie and Michael Shaw, wide receivers Martavious Odoms and Darryl Stonum seeing their first action. I look for a very nervous Michigan team taking the field with the memories of what happened last season against Appalachian State, and Oregon to start the season. So I look for Utah with 16 starters returning, and their skill players once again healthy including QB Brian Johnson, RB Matt Asiata, and WR Brent Casteel to come away with the outright win here. This game sets up as a trap and we won't fall for it as we make the Utes our solid value play for today.
Utah is 22-9 against the spread as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points.
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